The 2000 "Bubble" Jude Wanniski August 20, 2004

Memo To: SSU Students
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: Mark Thornton Guest Lecture

Thornton is a senior economist at the Ludwig von Mises Institute, which puts him well within the supply-side ballpark. He undertook an interesting project last year, sifting through the writings of economists who had focused on the stock market in the period leading up to the big sell off on April 14, 2000. His report appears in the recent edition of the Independent Review as "Who Predicted the Bubble, Who Predicted the Crash?" It is quite long because it goes far beyond a scorecard on the forecasters, but that's why it does deserve to be seen by a wide audience of people interested in economic forecasting. He does include my forecast of the crash in his report, or why else would I take him seriously? He does note that I do not believe in "bubbles," in the sense that I do not believe the market is inefficient in absorbing all the accurate information available.

You will need an Acrobat reader to get into the article, but I have to assume that most of you do. It will probably be easier to print it out and go over it after dinner some evening. Please send me questions if you have some. You can reach Dr. Thornton at mthornton@prodigy.net

http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?issueID=38&articleID=212